Omens, Luck, and Choice: Tales of How Neural Signals Can Uniquely Inform Decision-Making Science

ABSTRACT

How do people perceive luck, anticipate outcomes, and make choices even when no “right” answer exists? And how can brain signals help us understand these processes beyond behavior? In this talk, I will share two lines of work that uncover hidden mechanisms underlying decision-making quirks, taking advantage of neural signals. The first line, developed with Dr. Deborah Marciano (Psychology, Hebrew University) , investigates the Alternative Omen Effect—an illusory perception of negative correlation between independent outcomes—that leads people to expect losses after observing others win. We use Even-Related Potential (ERP) signatures to show how alternative outcomes bias outcome anticipation at early stages of processing and investigate the underlying cognitive processes. The second line, developed with Dr. Ariel Furstenberg (ELSC, Hebrew University), examines the neuroscience of picking situations—arbitrary choices without objectively better options. We explore how the brain monitors these decisions and even tracks “errors” when no errors are logically possible, shedding light on internal conflicts and intention reversals. Together, these studies highlight how neuroscience can uniquely illuminate cognitive phenomena that may be elusive in behavioral data alone, offering insight into both rational and irrational minds at work.